The Hidden Beauty of the Neosho Midget Crayfish

If there’s a group of animals that gets my complete affection without reservation it is the crayfish. I’m a alum of David Lodge’s lab at the University of Notre Dame, and although David has now moved very strongly into the realm of scientifically informing policy, back in the day he was a huge crayfish guy. Several members of his lab still work pretty exclusively on Orconectes rusticus (the dreaded Rusty Crayfish), and so I spent a lot of my graduate career thinking about crayfish. Plus they are just awesome.

The Neosho Midget Crayfish (Orconectes macrus [Greek, meaning long, in reference to long gonopods]) is a small crayfish found exclusively in the Neosho River Basin, and really almost exclusively in the Spring River Basin (Pflieger 1996). The historic range was probably more extensive, but despite its name, I think it is unlikely this crayfish occurred throughout the greater Neosho River Basin. In Kansas, this species occurs in the Spring River basin, although apparently very rarely. Beasley and Branson (1971) found these crayfish in the Missouri portion of the Spring River, but no where else in the drainage basin. Pflieger (1996) describes the species as “common…in most streams of the Neosho drainage except for North Fork of Spring River in Jasper and Barton counties.” I don’t want to suggest Pflieger is wrong, but if this is accurate, these are the only places on Earth the crayfish is common. Durbian et al. (1994) surveyed crayfish in Cherokee County Kansas (including the Spring River) and found no individuals of this species. Taylor et al. (2004) in their review of Oklahoma crayfish referred to the species as rare or uncommon and did not find it in the Spring or Neosho main-stem. The Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks did find two individuals in the Spring River in 1996 (Ghedotti 1998), at a location they had been found at historically, but this apparently was the result of considerable sampling effort. More recently, consultants sampling around a power plant in the Spring River collected 12 individuals labeled O. rusticus. Further inspection of a voucher specimen revealed it to be O. macrus (whew!), so the species does still occur in Kansas (KDWP, pers. comm).

The Neosho Midget Crayfish is a Species in Need of Conservation (SINC) in Kansas, which means selling or take of this species are illegal, but does not afford it the kind of protection granted Threatened and Endangered species. For example, projects occurring in the habitat of Neosho Midget Crayfish do not require a Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks (KDWP) Action Permit. However, KDWP does devote some special consideration to research projects involving SINC species, and we happen to know of a graduate student at Fort Hays State who is conducting a state-wide crayfish survey with some special emphasis on this species (or at least this area).

Like most crayfish, this species is considered to be opportunistic omnivores who will eat decaying vegetation and animal matter, as well as predate on invertebrates and small fish. According to Pflieger (1996) the species behaves more like Cambarus spp. in Missouri than like other Orconectes spp. Having not worked with Cambarus spp. in the past, I’m not really sure what he means, but this species appears to be pretty sedentary, spending most of its time under rocks or in tunnels. According to Pflieger “…not an agile or strong swimmer, and seldom takes evasive action when attempts are made to capture it by hand.” Reproduction apparently occurs in March or early April, and females virtually disappear from sampling collections during April (presumably because they were sequestered in burrows and thus unable to be collected).

The Spring River in Kansas has been the brunt of some fairly severe pollution impacts over the course of its history. The EPA has a 115 mile square Superfund site in this county (see here and here .pdf) from a history of heavy zinc and lead mining, and the Spring River is heavily polluted. Likely due to this pollution history and some fairly extensive development in SE Kansas, a number of species have become endangered or rare from the Spring River drainage. The Neosho Midget Crayfish appears to consist of several isolated populations in tributary streams that are kept disconnected by poor quality habitat in the main-stem of the Neosho and Spring Rivers. In particular, my feeling is that the Spring River in Kansas is a particularly crucial connection between apparently abundant subpopulations in Missouri and isolated populations in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Without a strong avenue to re-connect these isolated populations, the entire species is at risk from localized impacts and genetic drift.

Lit cited:

Beasley and Branson. 1971. A partial biological survey of the Spring River drainage in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri Part III. The Crayfishes. Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science 74:228-233.

Durbian, F.E., B.J. Frey, and D.W. Moore. 1994. Crayfish species from creeks and rivers of Cherokee County, Kansas. Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science 97:13-17.

Ghedotti, M.J. 1998. An annotated list of the crayfishes of Kansas with first records of Orconectes macrus and Procambarus acutus in Kansas. Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science 101:54-57.

Pflieger, W.L. 1996. The Crayfishes of Missouri. Missouri Department of Conservation. 152 pp.

Taylor, C.A., S.N. Jones, and E.A. Bergey. 2004. Crayfishes of Oklahoma revisited: New state records and checklist of species. The Southwestern Naturalist 49:250-255.

The Mysterious and Elusive Blackside Darter (Percina maculata)

And with that, Analyze Everything is back. Expect a weekly post on Thursday or Friday, focused initially on Kansas T&E and SINC species. Other posts will pop up sporadically. Hope you enjoy, and feel free to ask questions.

State and federal Threatened and Endangered Species lists are riddled with species who are so rare that they may easily be considered extirpated (or even extinct; see Eskimo Curlew). Although apparently facing no global threat of extinction (even in 1973 the darter was considered endangered in Kansas but not nationally), the Blackside Darter has become a whisper of a ghost in Kansas. According to the NatureServe distribution map (see it here), the existing (or recently existing) Kansas population is confined to the Mill Creek Watershed. This is interesting because the next closest population is in Missouri or Oklahoma, between 4-8 HUC8s away.

During the Summer of 2008, KDWP conducted a survey of the Mill Creek looking for Topeka Shiners (more on them elsewhere). There was some optimism that the Blackside Darter would be found at the same time, since unlike many darters, the Blackside is a common mid-column pool resident (Cross and Collins 1995). At this point, no Blacksides have been found (although some collected specimens may be identified as such later), and as far as I can tell, none have been found in Kansas since 1974! (Drenner and Cross 1981) Actually, now that I dig around the KDWP Stream Survey database I see a record of 3 Blackside Darters found on a site in 1994. A return visit in 2000 didn’t find any, however.

I wonder if the Blackside Darters are becoming extirpated in part due to their hybridization with logperch (P. caprodes). The two species have overlapping ranges, and have been observed to hybridize in Kansas (Drenner and Cross 1981), with hybrids having intermediate physical characteristics. Winn (1958) observed logperch males chasing female P. maculate (the latter being a small portion of the overall darter population even when relatively common). Hybridization may have some weird implications for conservation of rare species (c.f. Perry 2001). I did see a logperch in Mill Creek in July of 2008 that looked ‘funny.’ I wonder if that individual has a Blackside ancestor (might explain why we caught it in a pool).

The Blackside Darter is sexually mature in their second year (Becker 1983), and females may continue breeding until they are 4 years old (Bart and Page 1992). This darter consumes primarily benthic invertebrates (NatureServe 2008), although Cross and Collins (1995) also mentioned that the Blackside Darter “sometimes rises to the surface for food.” Among Kansas darters, the Blackside is unique for not clinging to the stream bottom. In general the species tends to prefer streams that one would consider good for mayfly and stonefly species (i.e., cool, clear streams with moderate currents and gravel substrates). Many Flint Hills streams fit this description, but despite fairly extensive sampling efforts in the Northern Flint Hills (mostly hunting the Topeka Shiner), the species is only known to occur in Mill Creek.

Bart, H. L., Jr., and L. M. Page. 1992. The influence of size and phylogeny on life history variation in North American percids. Pages 553-572 in R. L. Mayden, editor. Systematics, historical ecology, and North American freshwater fishes. Stanford Univ. Press, Stanford, Calfiornia. xxvi + 969 pp.

Becker, G. C. 1983. Fishes of Wisconsin. Univ. Wisconsin Press, Madison. 1052 pp.

Cross, F.B. and J.T. Collins. 1995. Fishes in Kansas. University Press of Kansas, Lawrence KS. p 238.

Drenner, R.W. and F.B. Cross. 1981. A natural hybrid fish, Percina maculate × P. caprodes, from Kansas. Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Sciences 84:61-62.

NatureServe. 2008. NatureServe Explorer: An online encyclopedia of life [web application]. Version 7.0. NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia. Available http://www.natureserve.org/explorer. (Accessed: July 21, 2008 ).

Perry, W.L., J.L. Feder, and D.M. Lodge. 2001. Hybridization and introgression between introduced and resident Orconectes crayfishes; implications for conservation. Conservation Biology.

Soil Conservation Commission (SCC). 1973. Rare, Endangered and Extirpated Species in Kansas. I. Fishes. Transactions of the Kansas Academy of Science 76:97-106.

What happened to Analyze Everything?

I know this explanation comes late for my cadre of loyal readers (...), but here's the deal. I moved, and I don't have internet access at home. Until I can integrate "writing a blog" into my job description at work, I'm not going to be putting much up here. So...

Indefinite hiatus!! Yay!

Don't worry though, I've got a plan for how to get this thing going.

The Weather Project: April 26th High Temp

All degrees are F.

Abstract:
I measured high temperature and predicted highs for three national weather websites to determine which was most accurate. In general, forecasts longer than 4 days in advance were considerably worse than those less than 4 days in advance. weather.com appeared to have the greatest accuracy on the longer forecasts (within 6 degrees for a 9 day forecast) and shorter forecasts (within ~3 degrees for 1 day forecast), while The Weather Underground was least accurate in the short term (off by ~ 6 degrees just 1 day in advance). Accuracy averaged across forecast length and website was greatest for cities in a continental climate (all around 3 degrees), and worst in Anchorage (almost 10 degrees off on average) and San Francisco (off by ~8 degrees).


Intro:
For some time I've been wondering just how accurate weather forecasts are. I'm especially curious about these extended forecasts by places like weather.com or Accuweather, which purport to predict the weather 10 and 15 days in advance. Really? The local news guys can hardly get it right 1 day in advance, and these online forecasters are shooting out 10-15 days? I'm skeptical.

The Question(s):
How how far in advance are forecasts accurate?
Sub 1: Do different websites have different accuracies?
Sub 2: Do different locations have different accuracies?

The Methods:
For this first swipe at answering those questions, I tackled the easier number to collect: High Temp. The three sites I looked at where weather.com, Accuweather, and the Weather Underground. I picked 8 cities completely non-randomly. 3 of the cities were ones I frequently visit and therefore specifically address Sub question 3 (Kansas City, KS; Wichita, KS; Pittsburg, KS). Since KS is a continental climate I also picks some cities from coastal climates (Seattle, San Francisco, Anchorage). I threw in Atlanta randomly, and South Bend because I used to live there (and the local forecasters were awful).
I then recorded the predicted high temp from 9 days in advance until April 26th. I screwed up on Day 5 and didn't get a prediction, and I was moving on April 26th itself, so I didn't get a 'same-day' forecast. I also didn't realize that Weather Underground doesn't predict highs for Anchorage.
Weather Underground has a 5-day prediction for high temp; weather.com has a 10-day; and Accuweather has a 15 day (!) prediction. Holy cow. However, these are all actually 1 day less, because they include the same-day forecast, which to me makes these 4-day, 9-day, and 14-day predictions (that's how they are referred to on the following data.

Results:

Let's take a look at some of the raw data. This is the first time I've used google docs to present data, I hope it looks ok.

Forecasts

Here we see the raw data for weather.com. I can't figure out how to change the y-axis (if anyone knows, leave a comment), but this doesn't actually look like a lot of change over time. The 9-day forecast is only marginally different than the 1-day forecast for several cities (noticeably the KS ones). This figure doesn't really address the questions easily, though, so let's take a look at the average accuracy of all the websites:

Average Accuracy

I don't have enough data yet to draw any definitive conclusions (that will take doing this multiple times), but for April 26th, weather.com seemed to be a lot more accurate, both early on and right in advance. I missed the 5-day forecast, but it looks like any forecast over 4 days in advance is pretty sketchy, while those under 4 days in advance are pretty good from Accuweather and weather.com. Weather Underground is up in the air.

There are some differences in the reported 'actual' values for these different sites as well (presumably they are using different locations to measure the temp). For the most part those are minor differences, but for some cities Weather Underground had much higher reported actuals than the other two sites. Knowing why that might be could account for some of the poor predictive ability of Weather Underground.

Ok, what about the different cities? Where are we most likely to get accurate weather forecasts. The following values are averaged across date and website.

As you can see, predictions for the Kansas cities are a lot more accurate than anywhere else. I'm not sure if this is because of this particular date, or if this is a general trend. I would not have predicted this, because I was under the impression that continental climates are extremely variable. However, as I think back, the only really weird weather we've had in the past week occurred on the afternoon of April 26th (!), when we had a 20 degree (F) temperature drop within a 15 minute span (I was standing outside when this happened. Amazing!). So maybe the forecasters for KS got an easy stretch.

On the other hand, San Francisco and Anchorage are apparently hard to predict right now.

Discussion:

Well, collecting this data and subsequently thinking about it have revealed a couple of insights, but mostly just a lot more questions. First of all, this isn't enough data to actually evaluate anything. I need to repeat this several times to figure out if the differences we saw here are real. Essentially, this is just a single data point (which is why I left off estimates of variation), and, at least for the KS sites, I have a hard time believing that all three sites aren't just being affected by the same weather system (they make a 170-mile-a-side triangle).
Secondly, I'm not sure daily high temp is the interesting thing to measure. Sure that's the number that gets thrown around on the websites in big, bold type, but probably more relevant to planning activities is rainfall or sunshine. All of these sites do appear to make those predictions too, so I'll have to collect data on that next time.
Finally, I really have no idea where these data are generated. Are these just aggregates of local forecasts or are they independently generated (or both)? There were variations in the accuracy of predictions, but overall the predictions tended to be fairly similar (variation in the recorded actual high temps contributed to overall variation in accuracy as well). Before drawing any definitive conclusions, I should probably incorporate that information into my evaluation.
If anyone has any thoughts or suggestions, I'd love to have them.

Black Footed Ferrets (In the wild!!)

So I planned to write an article to accompany this pic, but I'm exhausted and I have been and I probably will be for awhile, so let me just point out that recently the FWS released black-footed ferrets in Kansas, and two of my co-workers went out on an expedition to see them. The reality of ferrets in Kansas again is almost impossible to believe, but the following is proof (pic taken by KDWP Biologist Ed Miller).

Waterfalls in Kansas

Yes, Kansas has waterfalls, at least a few. The reality, of course, is that they are rare, vanishingly rare, and nothing compared to what you're getting in Oregon. But hey, IMHO that just makes it more exciting when you find a beautiful one. Below are pictures of the waterfall at Cowley State Fishing lake. Astoundingly, this isn't even mentioned on the on-line info for the park.

You can click these to enlarge. According to the park, this waterfall predates the construction of the lake (which is around the bend). My friend Matt and I spent the day out there last week looking for arrowheads and fossils. We didn't find much in the way of arrowheads (a broken spear point), but there are fossils all over the place.


The scale is a little hard to show in some of these, but the falls are maybe 30 feet tall? I included Matt in this pic to give a little scale.



This was one of my favorite places to go hang out in college (Southwestern is about 30 minutes away). Matt fished this area a lot, but apparently never caught any fish downstream of the lake, probably because they don't survive this fall and they aren't coming up from downstream (a low-water crossing cuts off fish passage).

Other waterfalls in Kansas? Well, I know of a few, but I haven't seen them. I'll have to figure out how to get access (I think they are on private land). In the meantime, I noticed that groundwater seeping out onto roadcuts was freezing during the winter, and I tried to get a picture of one of these frozen mini-waterfalls.

Asian Clams: Weirder than you thought they were

I had no idea, but The Loom mentioned today how Asian clams are capable of male-only reproduction. That is, the sperm is delivered to the female, and it promptly kicks out the female DNA (nuclear DNA). If someone can get a copy of that paper mentioned by Zimmer, send it on.

The trick is that the Asian clams do this with other species females, which solves the initial paradox implicit with this kind of idea. The question is, why hasn't this evolved in a lot of other species. I assume it is because while clonal reproduction is good for getting your genes passed on in the short term, no species with a sufficient genetic complexity can probably survive without sexual reproduction.